The final round of World Cup group games is upon us and, with it, the onslaught of calculators en masse to try and keep up to date with who will be progressing to the knockout stages from the five African countries playing at the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. It can be hard to wrap your head around what teams require to qualify – so we’ve gone through World Cup groups with African teams and assessed what each team needs to do to go through.

Only three teams have sealed their place in the last 16, and only two have been knocked out – meaning 27 teams enter the final round with a chance of qualification. Bring it on.

World Cup tiebreakers explained

If two or more teams are tied on points at the end of a World Cup group stage, the following tiebreakers apply in descending order:

1. Goal difference in all group matches
2. Goals scored in all group matches
3. Points in head-to-head between the teams
4. Goal difference in head-to-head between the teams
5. Goals scored in head-to-head between the teams
6. FIFA Fair Play rule
7. Drawing of lots

World Cup permutations

Group A: Netherlands, Ecuador, Senegal, Qatar

Final group games: Netherlands v Qatar, Ecuador v Senegal (Nov 29, 3:00pm)

• The Netherlands will qualify if they beat Qatar or if their game ends in a draw. They will also qualify if they lose and Ecuador beat Senegal.
• Ecuador will qualify with a win or a draw, or a loss provided the Dutch beat Qatar.
• Senegal need to win their final game, or draw hope that Qatar beat the Netherlands – a hail Mary, if ever there was one.
• Qatar are out of the World Cup.

Group D: France, Australia, Denmark, Tunisia

• France have already qualified for the last 16, and will finish top unless Tunisia beat them in the last game and Australia beat Denmark, coupled with a big goal difference swing.
• Australia will qualify with a win, or a draw provided Tunisia do not beat France.
• Denmark will qualify with a win provided Tunisia do not beat France (in which case they will be split on goal difference), but will be out with any other result.
• Tunisia will be out unless they beat France and Australia fail to beat Denmark.

Group F: Croatia, Morocco, Belgium, Canada

Final group games: Croatia v Belgium, Canada v Morocco (1 Dec, 3pm)

• Croatia will progress if they avoid defeat. If they lose, they need Canada to beat Morocco and hope that they can beat the Moroccans on goal difference.
• Morocco will qualify if they win or draw. If they lose, they need Belgium to beat Croatia and hope that their goal difference beats that of the Croatians.
• Belgium will qualify for the last 16 if they beat Croatia, or if they draw and Morocco beat Croatia – in which case the group will come down to goal difference.
• Canada are out of the World Cup.

Group G: Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Cameroon

Final group games: Cameroon v Brazil, Serbia v Switzerland (2 Dec, 7:00pm)

• Brazil have qualified for the last 16. They will top the group unless they lose and Switzerland win, in which case the two sides will be split on goal difference.
• Switzerland will be guaranteed to go through if they win, and guaranteed to be knocked out if they lose. If they draw and Brazil avoid defeat, they will progress, but if they draw and Cameroon beat Brazil, then Cameroon and Switzerland would be split on goal difference.
• Serbia and Cameroon both need to win to progress. If they both win, they will be split on goal difference to decide second place in the group.

Group H: Portugal, Ghana, Uruguay, South Korea

Final group games: South Korea v Portugal, Ghana v Uruguay (2 Dec, 3:00pm)

• Portugal have qualified for the last 16 and will be guaranteed top of the group if they avoid defeat in their final game.
• Ghana will be through if they beat Uruguay. If they draw and South Korea win, second place in the group would be decided on goal difference.
• Uruguay and South Korea will be eliminated if they do not win. Even if they win, their fates will depend on the other team’s result – if they both win, goal difference will come into the equation.